Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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See Gary Sick , “ The Election Story of the Decade , " New York Times , April 15 ,
1991 . ABC News Nightline , in collaboration with the Financial Times of London ,
has conducted a series of investigations on these allegations . Although much ...
The view from inside the administration was equally bleak , as National Security
Advisor Gary Sick commented : The image of U . S . weakness generated by
months of humiliating setbacks and frustrations was not healthy for relations with
The way these options were framed for President Carter by his advisors is an
important element . According to Gary Sick , there was a consensus within the
administration on the hierarchy of risk presented by the various options . Risk
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