Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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Primarily as a consequence of the talks between Hitler and Chamberlain at
Godesberg on September 22 and 23 , expectations of war increased dramatically
in Washington and elsewhere ( Dallek , 1979 , p . 165 . For a detailed account of
Before Godesberg , the most Roosevelt would do was to advise the democracies
about how to fight the prospective war ; thereafter , such considerations were
overwhelmed by his desire to prevent it . For Roosevelt , that had become the ...
... of Choice Problem Crisis ( including outcome of war ) = within status quo
Attitude to Risk Averse Preference Do not intervene Time Pre - crisis War not
expected 9 / 16 Berchtesgaden War expected Allies + win 9 / 23 Godesberg War
= certain ...
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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