Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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Stage I : September 13 - September 22 , 1938 During the first phase of the crisis ,
Roosevelt ' s assessment of the likelihood of general war fluctuated with the
reports he received from Europe . His determination not to intervene , however ...
Clearly , by this point Roosevelt wanted to act to affect the crisis . His desire to
influence the manner in which a general war in Europe would be fought had
been totally supplanted by a determination to prevent it . Henceforth he was
Within less than two days , therefore , Roosevelt ' s attention had shifted away
from the general long - run implications of the European situation for the United
States and toward the crisis itself . This shift in focus , moreover , was
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
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