Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
Resultat 1-3 av 83
tion because it appears to exhibit a number of phenomena associated with
prospect theory , such as a change in the framing of the choice problem and
corresponding preference reversal , risk acceptance to avoid loss , and the
operation of ...
... for the over - weighting of certain outcomes relative to others would further
increase the incentive to undertake excessive risks in order to avoid that loss .
More generally , whenever we find perceptions of certain losses , whether
defined in ...
Evidence regarding precisely how an actor frames a choice problem must be
independent of the outcomes the analyst wants to explain , of course , in order to
avoid circular reasoning . In addition , the question of why an actor frames a
Så tycker andra - Skriv en recension
Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
Andra upplagor - Visa alla
Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2000
Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate
Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997