Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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271 ) demonstrate in experiments involving two - stage choice problems . S The
aforementioned ... It distinguishes two phases in the choice process : ( 1 ) The
editing phase involves a preliminary analysis of the choice problem . It includes
Moreover , subjects are generally given a one - time choice , and outcomes are
not affected by choices made by an adversary . The framing of the choice
problem is usually inherent in the problem presented by the experimenter , and
Cancellation , combination , and other editing operations are also less
predictable . Thus the framing of the choice problem is as critical to decision -
making as is the evaluation of prospects , and requires intensive examination by
the analyst .
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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