Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
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... concern about the possibility of war as well as uncertainty about the intentions of the major players owing to contradictory reports from abroad , the conflicting views of members of his administration , and his own suspicions about ...
... concern re- mained about matters of substance was rapidly engulfed by the universal rejoic- ing over a procedural ... concerns and he seemed only minimally concerned with the crisis per se , contemplating even an outcome of war with some ...
... concerned with forging anti - Western , anti - imperi- alist coalitions in the Third World , they were also concerned ... concern because China was courting Arab regimes and pro - Chinese ele- ments existed within the Baath party . The ...
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Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
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Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
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