Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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Knowledge of the Watergate break - in would not have cost Nixon his presidency
; even sponsorship of it might not have . ... are more frequent than they would be
if people acted on unbiased estimates of costs and probabilities instead of being
Efficient in some sense surely ; but what would be the societal costs of constant
and rapid change ? What would be lost in the sense of the stability , regularity ,
and solidity of social life ? Furthermore , envy and jealousy would be increased if
He was not willing to define the new status quo as an acceptable reference point
because that concession might cost him his reelection , among other ... Risk here
meant both the likelihood of success as well as the costs and benefits involved .
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
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Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate
Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
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