Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
Från bokens innehåll
Resultat 1-3 av 25
... costs and probabilities instead of being driven by the need to get off without paying any penalty at all . More generally , prospect theory leads us to expect people to persevere in losing ventures much longer than standard rationality ...
... costs of constant and rapid change ? What would be lost in the sense of the stability , regularity , and solidity of ... cost of making a concession is greater than the gain received from the concession by the other side . For example ...
... costs and benefits involved . The main disagreement among advisors and decision - makers sur- rounded which level of risk was an acceptable one for the United States to take . In the end , the choice that was made was the highest level ...
Innehåll
Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
Upphovsrätt | |
1 andra avsnitt visas inte
Andra upplagor - Visa alla
Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
Vanliga ord och fraser
Hänvisningar till den här boken
Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ... Russell J. Leng Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2000 |
Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997 |