Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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The endowment effect exists even if the endowment is a windfall and therefore
somewhat artificial , though the effect may be ... For this reason , we might expect
laboratory studies to underestimate the true magnitude of endowment effects ...
Since , after Godesberg , Roosevelt viewed war as a virtual certainty , the
certainty effect made the outcome of war seem considerably worse than it had
when it was merely probable . His growing conviction that war was inevitable ,
that is ...
This effect , which implies that the disutility associated with giving up a valued
good is greater than the utility associated with receiving it , is appealed to in a
number of the preceding papers . Like loss aversion , the endowment effect is
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
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