Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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On the one hand , while new evidence that Britain and France were at last willing
to resist Hitler might have made American action more palatable to Roosevelt
because he no longer needed to feel that the democracies were trying to get the
The formation of belief must combine the strength , or extremeness , of newly
obtained evidence with its weight , or predictive validity ( see Griffin & Tversky ,
1991 , for an extensive treatment ) . But in most political situations , the decision ...
Not only may there be no very good evidence about the precise nature of a
decision - maker ' s reference point ( Shafir ) , or about his utility calculus ( Levy ) ,
it may also be difficult to ascertain his assessment of the risks involved in any ...
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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