Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
Resultat 1-3 av 50
For example , people are willing to take risk to avoid an outcome framed as a loss
that they refuse to take when the outcome is presented as a gain . Many analysts
believe that these insights have considerable potential for explaining behavior ...
If , for example , Roosevelt ' s post - Godesberg belief that an outcome of war
would now be a loss had been based on new information about the costs of war
to the United States , it would have been rational for him to decide to intervene to
According to Farnham , for example , President Franklin Roosevelt was
presented with different frames of the Munich crisis by , say , Secretary of State
Cordell Hull ( who advocated inaction ) , and his Ambassador to France , William
Så tycker andra - Skriv en recension
Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
Andra upplagor - Visa alla
Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2000
Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate
Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997