Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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The expected - utility principle asserts that individuals attempt to maximize
expected utility in their choices between risky options : they weight the utilities of
individual outcomes by their probabilities and choose the option with the highest
Needless to say , these are very demanding tasks because utilities , expected
probabilities , and these other variables are extremely difficult to measure
empirically . It is largely for this reason that social psychologists adopt the method
But if observed behavior were equally consistent ( or approximately so ) with both
expected - utility theory and prospect theory , the expected - utility explanation
would be preferable on grounds of its greater parsimony and normative appeal .
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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