Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
Resultat 1-3 av 14
... involving a lottery or gamble with the equivalent expected utility x , a risk -
averse actor will prefer the certain outcome to the gamble , a risk - acceptant
actor will prefer the gamble , and a riskneutral actor will be indifferent between
the two .
15 ) , the underweighting of probabilities works together with the concavity of the
value function to undervalue the gamble relative to the certain outcome , and thus
to encourage risk aversion . In the domain of losses , the underweighting of ...
Once again , the goal of recouping all of the personal , national , and
international losses in one great daring gamble emerges as highly appealing ,
from both a political as well as a psychological standpoint . This is exactly what
Så tycker andra - Skriv en recension
Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
Andra upplagor - Visa alla
Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2000
Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate
Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997