Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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DOMAIN One of the most dramatic events that occurred during Carter ' s tenure
as president was the Iranian hostage crisis . On November 4 , 1979 , in the ...
Thirteen of the hostages , all either black or female , were subsequently released
Pierre Salinger , who covered the hostage crisis for ABC News from Paris ,
provides a good summary of the situation ... While his political fortunes had risen
after the taking of the hostages , he was beginning to slip in the polls and had lost
In short , Carter ' s plan failed to release the hostages and reaffirmed his growing
domestic image of impotence . From a more personal perspective , the death of
the eight American soldiers was particularly difficult for President Carter .
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
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Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate
Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
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