Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
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... influence in Ethiopia would have widespread repercussions but paid little attention to the simultaneous gain of influence in Somalia . Similarly , earlier in the Cold War the United States was preoccupied with what it saw as losses that ...
... influence foreign policy behavior in this manner , as Maoz ( 1990 ) recognizes in his study of " framing the national interest . " It might be easier to influence a strategy choice by manipulating how a decision problem is framed ...
... influence of most individual - level attributes may be effectively randomized in large - n laboratory studies so that we can reasonably assume that risk orientation in those studies derives exclusively from framing around a reference ...
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Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
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Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
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