Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
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... intervene in the crisis by at least the afternoon of September 25 is thus a puzzle which must be solved . The First Intervention Throughout the day on September 24 , bad news poured into the White House . Despite the six - day respite ...
... intervene . With respect to the risk of failure , nothing had occurred at Godesberg which entitled Roosevelt to ... intervene militarily in the Czech crisis , or even threaten to do so . Moreover , despite his decision to intervene ...
... intervene . Second , the period in which the frame change occurred was unquestionably a time of great emotion as Americans observed Europe's headlong rush toward war . Writing on September 30 , Ickes testified to the common experience ...
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Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
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Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
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