Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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The political leaders knew , although they did not focus on it , that mass
inoculation was both costly and would ... issues to political leaders ( Neustadt &
Fineberg , 1978 ; Silverstein , 1981 ) , the logic of the argument for mass
inoculations was ...
Loss aversion and the status quo bias would still have an impact but through their
effect on public opinion rather than on political leaders directly . Prospect theory
implies that all of these effects would be reinforced if the threat of loss were ...
But there is good reason to believe that attitudes toward risk are one factor which
distinguish political leaders from the population at large and which facilitate their
rise to high - level political positions , so that we cannot dismiss these other ...
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
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Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
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