Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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But to the extent that perceptions are shared , loss aversion should stabilize local
conflicts by making it unlikely that either side can “ win big . ” Assuming the local
clients realize this , they will have to moderate their demands and actions .
A central characteristic of prospect theory ' s value function is loss aversion : the
function is steeper in the negative than in the positive domain , hence , losses are
predicted to loom larger than corresponding gains . Loss aversion plays an ...
Like loss aversion , the endowment effect is stated in terms of a precise
comparative notion . It does not merely assert that people will be reluctant to give
up things in their possession . Rather , it posits that people will find it more painful
to part ...
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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