Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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Thus , while the military risks of doing nothing were relatively low , the domestic
political risks were high . The second option was to up the ante slightly but only
through diplomatic means . This meant breaking political and economic relations
In other words , the risks here were seen as being more about the probability of
military success than about the political costs and benefits of undertaking the
mission , which seemed more acceptable . The key factor here is that the rescue
Brzezinski favored some kind of military rescue mission from the outset , even
though , like Vance , he knew that military risks were involved in the rescue
mission : My view was that casualties in the rescue mission would be
unavoidable ; but ...
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