Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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It is useful to note , however , that it might be necessary to go beyond the actor in
question to understand how he / she frames a particular choice problem .
Because of the importance of framing , one actor might try to influence the
behavior of ...
In particular , it is important to keep in mind that group preferences ought not to
be confounded with the preferences of particular individuals in the group . An
intransitive pattern of preferences , for example , may be exhibited by a group ,
The assumption is that each frame induces a particular perspective . The reason
framing effects are sizable and persistent is that the decision - maker does not
construct multiple or canonical perspectives but rather adopts the particular ...
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
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