Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
Från bokens innehåll
Resultat 1-3 av 34
... position at the beginning of the series of choices , or with respect to one's asset position at each individual choice ? A gambler who sustains a series of losses will be more inclined to be risk acceptant if he or she adopts the ...
... position were certain , or if its position had already deteriorated and the state wanted to recover those losses . These possibilities are not examined in the experimental literature , which deals almost exclusively with static - choice ...
... position ( economically , socially , politically , psychologically ) . Once her current assets have changed , the decision - maker is allowed to change her preferences . If , for example , the person had inherited a million dollars in ...
Innehåll
Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
Upphovsrätt | |
1 andra avsnitt visas inte
Andra upplagor - Visa alla
Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
Vanliga ord och fraser
Hänvisningar till den här boken
Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ... Russell J. Leng Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2000 |
Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997 |