Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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Possible illustrations of this might include Britain ' s resolve to recover the
Falklands after their seizure by Argentina in 1982 and the American
determination to roll back Iraq ' s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 – 1991 . It is also
interesting in this ...
That is , it focuses on " pure lotteries ” — where either all possible outcomes are
negative , or all possible outcomes are positive — but not on “ mixed lotteries , ”
where there are both positive and negative outcomes . There is little evidence as
The possible reversal of risk propensities at low probabilities and the highly
indeterminant behavior expected at extremely low probabilities further complicate
the analysis under certain conditions . Of course , excessive concern for all of
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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