Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
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... Psychological theories of judgment and choice explain departures from normative standards of rationality in terms of distortions arising from either cognitive limitations or strong emotion . Cognitive models of decision making regard ...
... psychologically arbitrary and so stagnation for them would have the same psychological impact as losses for others . This might explain what Western observers saw as the unusual propensity of the Soviet Union to take risks to increase ...
... psychological principles derived from prospect theory is at times quite compelling . But findings from other areas of psychology highlight the need for caution . As various researchers have shown ( Chapman & Chapman , 1969 ; see also ...
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Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
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Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
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