Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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(1) People tend to think in terms of gains and losses rather than in terms of their
net assets, and thgrefore_encode choices in terms of deviations from a reference
point. Kahneman and Tversky (1979, p. 273) argue that "the carriers of value or ...
But are these events as frequent as they would be if opportunity were as strong a
motivation as the fear of loss? In some cases, the reference point is not the status
quo but something better. The gap between this desired state of affairs and the ...
Furthermore, according to prospect theory, people evaluate prospective
outcomes against a neutral reference point, usually the status quo. Outcomes that
lie above the reference point are viewed as gains, while those falling below it are
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
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Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2000
Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate
Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997