Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
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... reference point is usually the status quo , but that need not necessarily be the case . One can also speak of deviations from an aspiration level or some other reference point which is not equivalent to the status quo . This possibility ...
... reference point is not the status quo but something better . The gap between this desired state of affairs and the current one can lead to high risk - taking . ( Of course , the danger here is that this argument will become taut ...
... reference point , usually the status quo . Outcomes that lie above the reference point are viewed as gains , while those falling below it are seen as losses . The importance of this concept for decision - making theory is that framing ...
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Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
Upphovsrätt | |
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Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
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