Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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This gesture made it easier for the Soviet leadership to deal with a military regime
, usually considered a reactionary force . In April Syrian Prime Minister Yusuf
Zayen traveled to the Soviet Union and secured development assistance that ...
Opposition to the regime increased instead , in part because a number of people
suspected of loyalty to the previous regime ... Religious leaders also stepped up
their campaign against the neo - Baath at this point because of the regime ' s ...
Why did the Soviets fear a collapse of the Syrian regime ? Given the internal
instability in Syria and its vulnerability to an Israeli incursion , this eventuality
seemed quite certain . Here the certainty effect seems to have been operative .
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ...
Russell J. Leng
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Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate
Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz
Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997