Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
Från bokens innehåll
Resultat 1-3 av 25
... respect to deviations from a reference point rather than with respect to net asset levels , that their identification of this reference point is a critical variable , that they give more weight to losses than to comparable gains , and ...
... respects . First , individuals tend to be risk - averse with respect to gains and risk - acceptant with respect to losses . In a typical experiment ( Kahneman & Tversky , 1979 ) , 80 % of respondents preferred a certain outcome of ...
... respect to other theories as well as with respect to the empirical evidence ( Lakatos , 1970 ) . Empirical data alone is insufficient to falsify or test a theory . Other relevant criteria include the logical coherence of a theory , the ...
Innehåll
Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
Upphovsrätt | |
1 andra avsnitt visas inte
Andra upplagor - Visa alla
Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
Vanliga ord och fraser
Hänvisningar till den här boken
Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises: The Soviet-American, Egyptian ... Russell J. Leng Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2000 |
Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-rational Debate Nehemia Geva,Alex Mintz Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997 |