Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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In the domain of losses , the underweighting of probabilities ( above the
probability transition point ) reduces the weights given to risky negative prospects
, makes them less unattractive , and thus encourages risk - seeking . In these
For small probabilities the over - weighting of probabilities works in the opposite
direction as the value function and encourages risk - seeking in the domain of
gains and risk aversion in the domain of losses . Which of these counteracting ...
But this is a very strong assumption , and probably not a very reasonable one , for
attitudes toward risk can also be affected ... for recruitment processes in some
political systems may be more biased than others toward risk - seeking
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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