Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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A state which perceives itself to be in a deteriorating situation might be willing to
take excessively risky actions in order to maintain the status quo against further
deterioration , even if a standard probability calculus based on expected value ...
These choices rarely involve one riskless and one risky option , but rather two
risky options , and which is more risky is often difficult to define conceptually or
measure empirically . The utilities of the payoffs for each outcome are not given
We should say , for example , not that an actor pursued a risky policy because
she was in the domain of losses , but that because of riskseeking with respect to
loses she adopted a more risky alternative than predicted by a standard expected
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