Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict
University of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor
This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases.
The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value.
Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir.
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This reflects the unpredictability of behavior under conditions of extremely small
or extremely large probabilities . In other words , the variance in the probability
weighting function is not constant and is quite large in the region near 0 or 1 .
Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham. bilities , small
probabilities are overweighted while larger probabilities are underweighted .
Although there is no conclusive evidence as to the specific point at which
But recall that risk orientation is determined not only by the value function but
also by the probability - weighting function . For small probabilities the over -
weighting of probabilities works in the opposite direction as the value function
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Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards
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