Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International ConflictUniversity of Michigan Press, 1994 - 165 sidor This volume is a comprehensive examination of the benefits and potential pitfalls of employing prospect theory---a leading alternative to expected utility as a theory of decision under risk---to understand and explain political behavior. The collection brings together both theoretical and empirical studies, thus grounding the conclusions about prospect theory's potential for enriching political analyses in an assessment of its performance in explaining actual cases. The theoretical chapters provide an overview of the main hypotheses of prospect theory: people frame risk-taking decisions around a reference point, they tend to accept greater risk to prevent losses than to make gains, and they often perceive the devastation of a loss as greater than the benefit of a gain. The three case studies---Roosevelt's decision-making during the Munich crisis of 1938, Carter's April 1980 decision to rescue the American hostages in Iran, and Soviet behavior toward Syria in 1966-67---generally support these hypotheses. Nevertheless, the authors are frank about potentially difficult conceptual and methodological problems, making explicit reference to alternative explanations, such as the rational actor model, which posits the maximization of expected value. Contributors to the volume include Jack Levy, Robert Jervis, Barbara Farnham, Rose McDermott, Audrey McInerney, and Eldar Shafir. |
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... success and , contrary to Kissinger's argument , India probably would not have turned on West Pakistan in 1971 even if the U.S. had not tried to deter such a move . Only in the last of his wars did Bismarck yield to the temptation to ...
... success , as well as in terms of lives and material that could be lost . The military itself knew of the high risks it was undertaking in planning the rescue mission . Indeed , the JCS report on the mission states explicitly that " the ...
... success offered by the Joint Chiefs of Staff , Carter's confidence in the success of the rescue mission increased , and peaked after the decision to proceed was made . Farnham , in turn , argues convincingly that no information had ...
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Contents | 1 |
Political Implications of Loss Aversion | 19 |
Insights | 39 |
Upphovsrätt | |
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Avoiding Losses/taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict Barbara Farnham Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 1994 |
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