Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective, With a New PrefaceHarvard University Press, 15 maj 2004 - 266 sidor Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim’s failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasizing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgmental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. |
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... Preface Ephraim Kam. SURPRISE ATTACK Written under the auspices of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies , Tel - Aviv University This One CEP4 - W67 - LWPN SURPRISE ATTACK The Victim's Perspective With a New Preface Ephraim.
... Preface Ephraim Kam. SURPRISE ATTACK Written under the auspices of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies , Tel - Aviv University This One CEP4 - W67 - LWPN SURPRISE ATTACK The Victim's Perspective With a New Preface Ephraim.
Sida vii
... Strategic Studies at Tel - Aviv University generously supported the final stages of the study , and I owe particular thanks to Major- General ( Reserves ) Aharon Yariv , the head of the Center . I am also grateful to the Leonard Davis ...
... Strategic Studies at Tel - Aviv University generously supported the final stages of the study , and I owe particular thanks to Major- General ( Reserves ) Aharon Yariv , the head of the Center . I am also grateful to the Leonard Davis ...
Sida ix
... Strategic Warning 22 Surprise and Military Preparedness 31 2. Information and Indicators 7 37 Quality of Intelligence Information 38 Early Warning Indicators 42 Signal and Noise 50 Quantity of Intelligence Information 53 3. Intentions ...
... Strategic Warning 22 Surprise and Military Preparedness 31 2. Information and Indicators 7 37 Quality of Intelligence Information 38 Early Warning Indicators 42 Signal and Noise 50 Quantity of Intelligence Information 53 3. Intentions ...
Sida xiii
... strategic surprise will not hap- pen again . Ephraim Kam was already a professional when he began work on this book , more than a dozen years ago , from his career as an analyst in the Israeli Ministry of Defense . Israel achieved ...
... strategic surprise will not hap- pen again . Ephraim Kam was already a professional when he began work on this book , more than a dozen years ago , from his career as an analyst in the Israeli Ministry of Defense . Israel achieved ...
Sida xviii
... strategic impor- tance , it can shed new light on the nature of future strategic sur- prises . Its similarities to other cases of strategic surprise include its many instances of intelligence failure : with so many contributing factors ...
... strategic impor- tance , it can shed new light on the nature of future strategic sur- prises . Its similarities to other cases of strategic surprise include its many instances of intelligence failure : with so many contributing factors ...
Innehåll
Introduction | xxvii |
The Components of Surprise Attack | 3 |
The Essence of Surprise Attack | 5 |
Reaction to Disasters and Warnings | 7 |
Aspects of Erroneous Estimates | 10 |
The Strategic Warning | 20 |
Surprise and Military Preparedness | 29 |
Information and Indicators | 35 |
Analogies and Learning from History | 122 |
Evaluating Incoming Information | 130 |
Choosing among Alternative Hypotheses | 134 |
External Obstacles to Perception | 140 |
Changing a View | 146 |
The Environment | 155 |
The Analyst and the Small Group | 157 |
Groupthink | 161 |
Quality of Intelligence Information | 36 |
Early Warning Indicators | 40 |
Signal and Noise | 48 |
Quantity of Intelligence Information | 51 |
Intentions and Capabilities | 54 |
Inference and Difficulties in Estimating Intentions | 57 |
The Enemys Conceptual Framework | 62 |
Risk Taking by the Enemy | 67 |
Estimating Capabilities | 70 |
Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis | 81 |
Conceptions and Incoming Information | 83 |
The Persistence of Conceptions | 87 |
Assimilating Information | 92 |
Information and Expectations | 96 |
Treating Discrepant Information | 99 |
Cognitive Biases and Overconfidence | 103 |
The Process of Analysis | 113 |
Stages of Intelligence Analysis | 118 |
Approaches for Generating and Evaluating Hypotheses | 120 |
Pressures for Conformity | 162 |
The Leader and the Expert | 166 |
Group Risk Taking | 171 |
Organizational Obstacles | 174 |
Rivalry Coordination and Communication | 177 |
Intrinsic Problems in the Intelligence Organization | 184 |
Military Men and Surprise Attack | 194 |
Intelligence and Decision Makers | 197 |
Decision Makers and Intelligence Production | 198 |
Commitment to a Policy | 202 |
How Decision Makers Affect the Intelligence Process | 204 |
Decision Makers and Surprise Attack | 209 |
Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? | 211 |
Why Safeguards Usually Fail | 213 |
War without Surprise? | 227 |
Bibliography | 239 |
257 | |
Andra upplagor - Visa alla
Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective, With a New Preface Ephraim Kam Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2004 |
Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective, With a New Preface Ephraim KAM,Ephraim Kam Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2009 |
Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective, With a New Preface Ephraim Kam Begränsad förhandsgranskning - 2004 |
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Populära avsnitt
Sida xiv - It includes gaps in intelligence, but also intelligence that, like a string of pearls too precious to wear, is too sensitive to give to those who need it. It includes the alarm that fails to work, but also the alarm that has gone off so often it has been disconnected.
Hänvisningar till den här boken
Intelligence for Multilateral Decision and Action Perry L. Pickert Obegränsad förhandsgranskning - 1997 |